The uncertainty interval represents the possible range of estimates with a probability of 90%. In our forecasted hot spot views, the uncertainty interval is shown in brackets, from the lower bound of the estimated forecast to the upper bound of the estimated forecast. Mayo Clinic uses a susceptible, infected and recovered Bayesian model (SIR). The parameters in our model are updated with daily case counts every day, and then 500 simulations are used to produce an average forecast and 95% uncertainty interval for future cases.
The infection rate used in this prediction model may vary by place and time, due to the impact of changes in public behavior and different strains of SARS-CoV-2.
